11.11.2009

Steelers Midseason Positional Breakdown

Not a particularly sexy headline there, but then it's a post with a bit of a spartan purpose. Let's look at how the Steelers are stacking up through eight games in as many phases of the game that I deem worth discussion. Worry not, there'll be plenty of talk to come later in the week on the pivotal game against Cincy.

OFFENSE

Quarterback -- Last year, thanks to a Week 1 shoulder injury, coupled with a wholesale lack of blocking or help in the running game, Big Ben had a middling statistical season, which gave cause to his many detractors to dust off the long disproved "game manager" label. Hell, even though he's been playing at a Pro Bowl level all year (and been to a Pro Bowl in the past) Jaws invoked it at the beginning of the Monday Night Football broadcast. Again, it's a sad misnomer that will hopefully fade with time and his ever-mounting lost of accomplishments, but who knows. While some of his turnovers aren't on him (Week 1 Hail Mary interception, pick six caused by a missed hot read by Santonio against the Bengals, fumble against the Broncos after Kemoeatu got beaten badly) he's had the occasional bad misfires, such as the redzone interception in Denver. Still, hard to find much to bicker about here.

Running back -- After he's torched the Chargers, there was skepticism about how Rashard Mendenhall would fare against a respectable run defense. Two solid performances at home against the Vikings and on the road in Denver have quieted those doubts in a hurry. Still, it's his first full season in the NFL, so it's good that the team has Mewelde Moore to grind out yards late in ballgames to ensure Mendenhall doesn't get worn down before the end of the year.

Fullback -- David Johnson appears to have played himself into this role for the forseeable future. He had a few nice blocks to spring long runs this past week. A welcome find in what has been a fruitful '09 Draft for Tomlin and Colbert.


Wide receivers -- The big question coming into the season was if the Steelers could ably replace Nate Washington as the no. 3 receiver and with who? Suffice it to say, Limas Sweed was not up to the task, but Mike Wallace has not only made Steelers fans forget about Nate, he's already appreciably better than Nate ever was at any point in his career in Pittsburgh. Excluding his Week 1 fumble, Hines has been nothing short of great. Santonio endured some mental gaffes earlier in the year, and still is a little up and down in his week-to-week output, but has otherwise steadied.

Tight end -- It's Heath Miller. He's good.

Offensive line -- Like Wallace, another pleasant surprise. Hell, even Willie Colon has gotten the stupid penalties in check, while Max Starks, whose contract extension I bemoaned endlessly during the offseason, has been downright stellar for most of this season. Gotta hand it to the guy keeping in check two elite rushers in Jared Allen and Elvis Dumervil in check the previous two weeks. Granted, Chris Kemoeatu was beaten badly on a play that resulted in a costly turnover, but otherwise Roethlisberger has time to throw and Mendenhall had running lanes against Denver.

Playcalling --Not that I'm turning into a Bruce Arians defender by any means, but he's been easier to take this year. He wisely committed to the run against the Broncos, though I was surprised by the lack of play action until midway through the second quarter. There was a lapse into his usual "let's run on first down to keep the defense honest then go into obvious pass formations on 2nd and 3rd downs" early in the game, which is partly why the Steelers had difficulty early on.

DEFENSE

Defensive line -- Denver simply could not run against the Steelers, even when their pass game was working in the first half. Adrian Peterson would solid, if unspectacular coming out of the backfield. Aaron Smith will be missed at times throughout the rest of the season, but nowhere near are sorely as anyone initially expected.

Linebackers -- Surprise! There's still probably among the best units in the league. Keyaron Fox is challenging Lawrence Timmons for playing time the same way Timmons did to Larry Foote. That's not a bad problem for a team to have. LaMarr Woodley sack stats, however, are way down, though he has made his presence felt in pass coverage and run stopping. And lately he's getting a lot of pressure on QBs even if the sacks aren't coming to him. The fumble recovery against the Vikings was also a needed boost for him, though we've still yet to see a monster game out of him this year the way we have with James Harrison.

Corners -- William Gay is getting routinely picked on by quarterbacks. At the moment, it's probably the biggest concern the team has. Again, he's a first-year starter, there are adjustments to make. And I don't think he's played terribly. He should have had an interception against Denver that was jarred away by Polamalu. He'll need to step it up as the season progresses, however. Ike has been routinely solid

Safeties -- The league got a reminder that a healthy Polamalu makes all the difference to this defense. It was good to see Tyrone Carter step up in Ryan Clark's absense. Like I said last week, Tyrone's skill set more closely matches Ryan's than Troy', which is why I think he fared much better against Denver than when he had to play Polamalu's role earlier in the season.

Coaching -- The most frustrating aspect of the defensive playcalling to date in 2009 has been how far corners have played off receivers, which opposing offenses have takens advantage of more than anything else against the Steelers. At first I thought it would disappear with Polamalu's return, but it remains. Might have something to do with a lack of faith in William Gay at this point. It would be nice to see them at least attempt to play some press coverage.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicking -- As long as Jeff Reed is quiet and not trying to fight cops, the kicking game is fine. After a disaster in Chicago and another miss in Cincy, Reed has bounced back somewhat. The short kickoff and perfunctory tackle attempt on Percy Harvin's touchdown return two weeks back was another thing that will dog him come contract offer time, but it seems at least he's getting the message to shut up and play.

Punting -- Watching Mitch Berger shank a few for Denver on Monday night was another splendid reminder how much better off the Steelers have been with Sepulveda back.

Coverage -- It was looking shaky for a few weeks, but responded very well against Eddie Royal in Denver. And while they got burnt two weeks in a row, it came against Joshua Cribbs and Percy Harvin, two of the best return guys in the NFL this year. Not to say we should expect them to break down when going against good competition, but these are players capable of hurting anyone.

The team has really been able to congeal within the past month. Whereas last year, the Steelers were a team with very glaring weaknesses and obvious strengths that could compensate for them, this is a more complete team we're seeing this year, which is a startling thing. A lot of credit is due to the coaching staff and scouting for helping to plug those problems, despite a rough start, through adjustments and the draft. Should the upward trend of the past month continue to play out, repeating is a very real possibility.

11.10.2009

At Last, a 4th Quarter Putdown to Quash All Doubt

Kyle Orton came in with one interception all season. He threw three tonight. Ryan Clark's replacement had two of them.

Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger tossed three touchdowns. Rashard Mendenhall ran for more than 150 yards, and for a change didn't cough the ball up. The special teams denied Denver its needed long return, while neglecting to surrender a cheap turnover.

That's all you need to know this was the second big Steelers win in as many games.

Of course, all could have been different if not for another consistently huge effort by the defense. While the unit was burned by the pass during the Broncos first three or four drives, they held firm and allowed a mere three points while putting up seven of their own in the first half. Thanks to a couple confounding turnovers by the offense in Broncos territory at the beginning of the offensive onslaught in the second half, the unit was called on to shut the door again. Look no further than Troy Polamalu. With Denver getting the ball inside their own 20 down 14-10 with nine minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, Troy made a run blitz off the corner for a loss, then on the following play made an interception to set up a backbreaking TD pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace.

The contrast in running couldn't have been more encouraging. 173 yards to 27 on the road. Though we know the early season pattern that saw the Steelers come out of the gate in the 1st quarter resulted in repeated failure, it would be nice to see the offense put up an effective job in the first half. The defense, too, seemed in the first half like they hadn't learned much for the Ravens win over the Broncos last week, playing too far off receivers and leaving the middle of the field wide open for slants and crossing routes. But William Gay getting burned early on quickly morphed to a stifling effort by all involved. A singular effort by Brett Keisel must be acknowledged. While the rest of the pass rush was unable to bring down Orton, it was Keisel who was able to sling two sack arrows out of his quiver (still think Keisel has one of the best celebrations in the league).

The best oversized towel of the night for a two-TD receiving effort.

This week, The Steelers lived up to their side of the deal, as the Bengals did theirs. Next week instantly becomes the biggest game of the year for either team. There wasn't much tonight that didn't declaim that Pittsburgh isn't up to the challenge.

11.06.2009

Traveling Light Into Thin Air

I'm sure a lot of observers who watched the Broncos game against the Ravens last week came away thinking the Ravens had somehow created a blueprint to beating Denver, which is kind of silly, because, even though Baltimore had more success than other teams have had against Denver's defense, Josh McDaniels put together one of the stupidest offensive gameplans I've seen this season. Unless he plans on replicating that week in and week out (and, hey, I wouldn't particularly mind) Monday night will hardly be a carbon copy of that game.

The Ravens were playing up on the line pretty much the entire game. McDaniels' visionary counter to this was a steady diet of running up the gut and throwing receiver screens to Brandon Marshall. Which might have worked if Baltimore were running all-out jailbreak blitzes on every play. But obviously they weren't and it made for a strategy that played directly into Baltimore's hands.

Any chance that Denver tries the same thing against the Steelers? I wouldn't bet on it. The shortcommings of Kyle Orton deep ball necessitate playing a little conservative, but what they did last week was turtle offense. And the fact that they didn't alter it much, if at all, tells us Mike Nolan is responsible for a lot more of Denver's success than Belichick's deciple might be.

But Denver is still a team, not unlike the Steelers at times, that can have a poor offensive showing and be able to put up wins. The previous game against San Diego, the team was largely outplayed, but managed a victory by dint of two return touchdowns by Eddie Royal. That's of particular concern to a Steelers teams that finds itself with alarmingly poor kickoff coverage the last two games. Because the Broncos sports statistically the league's best defense, another break down in coverage could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Max Starks performed admirably two weeks ago, shutting out Jared Allen, the NFL's sack leader. He'll be tested again facing Elvis Dumervil, who trails Allen by only half a sack. More commitment to the ground game would be nice to see, especially given the immense success it had against the Vikings. How you can have a back averaging nearly five and a half yards per carry and limit him to only one game with more than 20 carries is astounding. The lack of adjustment for the offense was troubling last week. I have said that in general Bruce Arians has done a better job this season, but there had to be recognition from the success of the running game and the end of the half touchdown drive that the short yardage passing game needed to be ditched in the second half against the Vikings. They were fortunate that it did not cost them and they can't afford to be as rigid if they run into problems on Monday.

In addition to Ryan Clark already (smartly) ruled out, it looks as though Travis Kirschke and Lawrence Timmons are unlikely to go, or at best, see very limited playing time. Keyaron Fox is a luxury is that there's no dropoff without Timmons, though you have to worry about depth should something happen to he or Farrior. Kirschke's injury means more reps for Nick Eason and Ziggy Hood, but thankfully, the chances of them getting overmatched are lessened with the Broncos right tackle Ryan Harris already out for the game.

As for Sunday, obviously I'll be keeping a keen eye on the Bungles and Ratbirds. Even with Haloti Ngata hobbled, I don't see the Baltimore getting swept by Cincy, though I've been wavering on which team I'd prefer to see lose that game. A Ravens loss drops them woefully behind in the division race, with games remaining against an Indy team that crushed them last year, two against the Steelers and another tough trip to Lambeau. A Cincy loss obvious gives the Steelers a chance to take the division and control of the no. 2 seed on Monday night, both of which would be nice but don't mean a ton at the halfway point in the season.

11.04.2009

Can You Believe This Booshit?

Yeah, a receiver who blocks a lot is much worse than a 300-plus pound defensive lineman who stomps on people's faces. Or a safety who's made a illustrious legacy of horsecollaring people to death? And how did Vince Wilfork not crack the top 5? Last I checked, Hines never took a flying elbow at someone's knees.

Nice that SI happens to quote a Bengal to corroborate that Hines is supposedly dirty. Can't believe they got that reaction.

There are some dyed in the wool false hater perceptions the Steelers are never going to shed. Big Ben as game manager who only wins because of the defense is one. And Hines as dirty cheap shot artist is another. Naturally, this becomes Exhibit A for the latter argument.

I'd be interested to know where the distribution of votes came from. Hines got 11.6 percent of the 296 players surveyed. Wouldn't be shocked if those roughly 30 who named him the dirtiest in the league were primarily Ravens, Bengals and Browns players.

11.02.2009

Your Quarterly AFC Team-By-Team Breakdown

Running low on AFC team themed Google images...

Recently, I was asked why I confined this monthly piece to the AFC. The rationale: Unless we happen to be playing them on a given Sunday, NFC teams do not matter to the Steelers. And the playoff landscape of the NFC certainly doesn't. Making the playoffs as healthy and with as good a record as possible SHOULD be the goal of every team at the onset of the season. I didn't give a sugar-frosted fuck about the Arizona Cardinals until last January (except Edgerrin James, who was on my fantasy squad because I am a fantasy "guru," clearly).

What follows is a break-down of The AFC, but I've included what I see as the NFC picture for now, like I'm some sort of soothsayer, I know...

"Loss-less"

Indianapolis (7-0): Wish I had been wrong about this one, previously. Pey-Pay actually looked rather pedestrian Sunday, failing to find the end zone. Again, Manning is going to put up his usual numbers (his cast of offensive characters is definitely better this year) but the defense is what is securing their place at the top thus far. The Colts just got safety Bob Sanders back and have held opponents to the lowest points total in THE ENTIRE NFL. The good news: their schedule has been relatively easy (The Titans were not the test anyone thought they'd be and it's fair to say Miami was more of a struggle than some thought). Additionally, the four game stretch that lay ahead of them will likely deliver at least one loss. Texans (potential shootout match up), Pats (over-hyped match up), @Ravens (lingering abandonment hatred/potentially stabby match up) and @Texans again will not be a cake-walk. Still, The Colts have the inside track on a first round bye. I fully expect that they'll claim one.

"One Hiccup"

Denver (6-1): Speaking of inside tracks, The Broncos still have one as a path to the AFC West title, though it did get a bit more bumpy Sunday. Orton was shown by the Ravens to be completely disoriented and incapable of delivering a big strike down the field. The running back situation here should not by a cause of opponents' concern, either. I'm tentatively optimistic about the Steelers' chances of snagging a win at Invesco, Monday. That being said, The Broncos' D will still keep them in most games (they only gave up two offensive TDs to Baltimore) and they have the Redskins, Raiders and Chiefs (twice) left on their slate. Pick up one additional win (especially against the Chargers) and the Broncos will be the weakest division winners in the AFC playoff picture.

"On a roll..."

Cincinnati (5-2): Possibly the most impressive thing about this team is that they're 3-0 on the road with wins in Green Bay and Baltimore. That's DEFINITELY not the old Bengals. Even in Carson Palmer's "WhoDey Hey-Day" they struggled away from the Queens City. The Bengals have won shootouts (Chicago & Green Bay) and tight defensive matches (Baltimore), they've won with the running game and passing game. It definitely seems as though their biggest obstacle is themselves as untimely turnovers essentially lead to their two losses. As far as I'm concerned, Cincy is legit and capable of a playoff run. The AFC North picture will come into focus in the next two weeks as the Bungles play the Ravens then Steelers to start November. With Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit on their schedule afterward, getting even one of those two divisional wins will put them a very good chance of making that run a reality.

New England (5-2):
I just don't see any way around the fact that the Pats win the AFC East. Not with The Jets floundering. And certainly not with the Bills and Dolphins and their respective inconsistent offenses lead by garbage-heap QBs. What's more, Brady & Co. won't be underdogs in a single remaining contest, save slight ones at Indy. Dammit, I really don't want another year of Boston-based sports media pandering...

Houston (5-2): Um, if this Ryan Moats fella is even a little bit of the play-making threat he looked at Buffalo we may have our Wild Card front-runners, here. Then again, two of their next three are against Indianapolis (SEE: "Scheduling Anomaly"). Personally, I think it'll be a playoff miss, but a narrow one.

"Head Above Water..."

Baltimore (4-3): No getting around it: This team will have more to do with deciding how The Steelers' season plays out than any other on the list. Are they the league's best defense? Hardly. Should we expect to take both games against them? I wouldn't bet on it. The Ravens are gearing up for the Nov. 29th contest against Pittsburgh like it's the damn Super Bowl. Have been for months. But they'll be coming off what's sure to be a challenging contest versus Indy, while we BETTER be riding high off a win in KC. Every year, a teams' schedule is set with six divisional games, and eight "tied-in" games consisting of teams from a division within their conference and a division from the other conference. This leaves two games that are decided
by their finish in the division from the previous year vs. the same place finishers in the other conference divisions not on the schedule. The Ravens' this year get New England and Indianapolis. And THAT will be what keeps them from dancing into the playoffs, in my opinion.* Surely, the Ravens' losses to Minnesota and to Cincy at home didn't help their situation and puts them at a disadvantage comparatively, but make no mistake: They're good enough to keep us from the postseason.

*Fixed due to commenter "Luz" Thanks. I think.

San Diego (4-3): Let's not get excited about this team having beaten the Raiders and Chiefs - they're supposed to do that. A disappointing ground game (not a single 100-yard rushing game between either Sproles or LT) and literally one too many difficult remaining games on the schedule means The Chargers will make it interesting (they have the Titans and 'Skins to close out the season), but come up just a little short.

"Even Steven"

New York (4-4): Whoops. Swept by the Fins. It'll be a long bye week here. Pats, Falcons, Bengals and Colts all still left on the schedule for these guys. That's at LEAST seven losses and won't be good enough to get them in. Hope they aren't on our schedule next year, though, they'll be on the rise.

"Spoilers Alert"

Miami (3-4): The only team from here down that has any legitimate shot at the post season, and an outside one at that. The Dolphins would have to at the very least split with the Patriots to make a postseason push. Given that, it could be done as they have a soft-ish schedule and a serviceable ground game. Then again, consider these numbers: 44.2, 92.0, 130.4, 45.0 and 87.8 - No, that's not the o-line's IQ stats, it's Chad Henne's QB ratings this season: The picture of inconsistency. Likely not good enough to get into the tourney, but fully capable of ruining another teams' chances. Here's hoping they're out of it come the last week for our sake.

"Juuuuust a Bit Outside"

Jacksonville (3-4): I feel bad for MJD. Languishing as a top-teir back on this squad. Honestly, I thought conditions were perfect for the Jags to make a run, but going to OT with the Rams and losing by three scores to the Titans put that idea to bed. Still a really weak schedule remains, but they missed their window.

Buffalo (3-5): See what kind of Karma you invite when you sign Terrell Owens? The offensive numbers here are just disgusting. The truly scary part? If they'd beaten the BROWNS they'd be .500

"Don't Get Comfortable, Coach"

Oakland (2-6): It would be great if the Raiders could get their act together enough to put up a fight agains the Bengals in three weeks. Ah, who am I kidding? They're more likely to make me lose my stuffing on Thanksgiving the following week.

Tennessee (1-6): Isn't there just a little part of you that thinks the Titans could make a run with VY only to see his mental state break down? Obviously it's too late for this year, but I bet they still have 4 or so wins in them.

Kansas City (1-6): Not a fan of having to play AT Arrowhead or knowing that Jamaal Charles is fully entrenched as their back now. Still, if we can't handle this team we don't deserve the playoffs.

Cleveland (1-7): Hopeless. No other word to describe this team, coach and franchise. Years away from competing.

Trying to predict the AFC North outcome is FAR more daunting than the Conference picture as a whole. As it stands now, ours is the only division with three winning teams in the AFC. I still feel like The Ravens are on the outside looking in as they have the home loss to the Bengals, but it obviously could move in any direction.

The Playoff Picture as I see it:

AFC NORTH: Steelers (11-5)
AFC SOUTH: Indianapolis (14-2)
AFC WEST: Denver (11-5)
AFC EAST: New England (12-4)

AFC Wild Cards: Cincinnati (10-6) and Houston (11-5)

NFC NORTH: Minnesota (13-3)
NFC SOUTH: New Orleans (15-1)
NFC WEST: San Francisco (10-6)
NFC EAST: Philadelphia (12-4)

NFC Wild Cards: Atlanta (12-4) and Dallas (10-6)

10.29.2009

What Are YOU Watching This Weekend?

Don't look into his eyes, Mr. Mittens, he'll steal your soul.

Having to attend a wedding in the Fall is enough to strike fear into the heart of almost any sports fan. But, the Gods have smiled upon me, and of all weeks to be traveling away from The 'Burgh (and my television) I've been blessed with the bye week.

Indeed, there are a host of important athletic contests to monitor as the weekend progresses. I will not give anything but the casual glance at The Bottom Line to MLB and NCAA games, however. As far as I'm concerned, The World Series is an extrapolated joke played on us every year by two of the highest-salaried teams. There isn't a single college game that would hold my interest, save Oregon v. USC @ 8PM and I fully plan to have taken a bottle of scotch past the label by then. The Penguins play both Friday and Saturday, games. I'll follow on the phone, but being out of state will dictate I simply check The Pensblog at some point Monday for game updates, most likely.

BUT, AHHH, THE NFL. HOW I LOVE YOU. HOW GRATEFUL I AM FOR ALMOST EVERY GAME OF YOURS CAPTIVATING ME.

1 O'CLOCK GAMES:
(CBS)
(FOX)
Denver/Baltimore - Most likely the game you're watching. The game you SHOULD be watching. Gumbel & Dierdorf. Blek. No doubt, you'll be rooting for Denver. I've heard some postulate that we should hope the Ravens win so that we gain a game on the first-round bye vis a vie the Broncos. This nonsense. Where we are right now, our concerns need to be on th immediate, namely winning the division. Stick with rooting against all divisional threats, people. But, remember: We go to Denver next Monday, so every little bit of punishment they receive is a bonus for us as well.

NYG/Philadelphia - The Fox game, so the one you'll be toggling to during CBS commercials. They'll be making a huge deal out of Philly v. NY bullshit due to The World Series. I couldn't care less. I'm thinking the Giants right the ship, but fantasy interests should steer your cheering interests, here.

Seattle/Dallas - I fucking loathe Dallas.

SanFran/Indy - Sure, this upset could happen. And I could shit skittles, too.

St. Louis/Detroit - All fans in attendance will receive a voucher for 5 free therapy sessions.

Miami/NYJ - An example of a game in which you should pull against a team for their potential impact on our postseason down the road as the Jets will likely be in on the Wild Card hunt. Go fish (yes, I realize they're mammals, kill yourself).

Cleveland/Chicago - Bwahahaha.

Houston/Buffalo - Time to find out if the Texans can vie for a Wild Card spot. It's cold up there, Schaub, you still gonna be leading the league in TDs after this game? Pay-pey'll overtake you this week, sorry.

4 O'CLOCK GAMES
:
Minny/Green Bay - According to the map, unless you live in AZ or Carolina, you'll be completely immersed in a full-blown Favre-gasm. Watching Favre at Heinz last week, I am further convinced that his body will break down long before he could possibly hoist a Lombardi. Take a good look at the Pack, we face them on Dec. 20th.

Jacksonville/Tennessee - No one is watching. No one cares. But Jacksonville gets a winning record here, with KC coming in next week.

Oakland/San Diego - Chargers roll.

Carolina/Arizona - Beanie Wells available in your fantasy league? Grab him. The Cards are quietly reinacting last year all of a sudden.

8PM:
NOTHING. NOT A FUCKING THING. - Ape did a good job of detailling this travesty. Guess I'll watch the camera pan through the disgusting, knuckle-dragging Phillies crowd.

MNF:
Atlanta/New Orleans - Beginning to think Karma is on the Saints' side this year. Atlanta poses one of only a few remaining threats for Brees & Co. I'll be rooting for Atlanta, but expecting a double-digit W for Le Saintes.

See you next week, folks.

10.26.2009

The Bye Has Arrived and So Has the Defense

After losing Aaron Smith for the season two weeks ago against the Lions, I said the Steelers defense would never this season look like the dominating unit from a year ago that could win games almost entirely on their own.

And with their first real test, facing an undefeated team that featured the league's leading rusher, the 2009 defense put up a performance to rival that of any from the championship unit a year ago.

Granted, the D gave up 334 yards passing to Brett Favre (albeit on 51 pass attempts), but they forced two game-swinging turnovers for touchdowns and made a key third down stop on the 1-yard-line (it can't be denied that Brad Childress helped on this last one with cretinous playcalling). Subtracting his two longest rushes of 19 and 15, Adrian Peterson's other 16 carries went for 34 yards. Purple Jesus is bound to break a few (his biggest gain came on a pass reception) but even his longest rushes were under 20, while he was contained otherwise. This was a run D that many had expected to take a huge step back without one of their key contributors.

That isn't to say the defense played perfectly. There were a few breakdowns in coverage on 3rd and longs that will need to be addressed in the bye week. Both happened on the Vikings side of the field, but the throws to Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice set up long Minnesota drives. The one along the sideline to Rice, initially ruled incomplete, could have led to a score that would have given the Vikes the lead. In both cases, these were the result of huge gaps in zone coverage that shouldn't exist on such obvious passing downs.

The pass rush, while able to sack Favre four times (two of which were by James Harrison - giving him eight through seven games), had a disconcerting number of blitzes where they generated little to no pressure on the Vikings backfield. That inconsistency may have something to do with the Steelers corners playing a little farther off receivers than they should have most of the game. Except for the occasional gunsling on one-on-one coverage, the Vikes tried to dink and dunk with receiver screens for most of the game, which was for the most part successful.

For what is becoming an all-too-frequent trend, a comfortable lead was cut by the play of the special teams. After surrendering kick returns for TDs each of the last two games (more than they allowed all of last season), coverage has to be a big focus going into a game facing Eddie Royal in two weeks in Denver. Jeff Reed, meanwhile, is far more deserving of criticism for his kick going to the side on the 15 on Harvin's return than his perfunctory shoulder tackle attempt. Factor in Logan's late stripped fumble on the punt return against the Chargers, and the special teams have accounted for three scores by the opposition in the last five games. inexcusable.

Rashard Mendenhall easily spoiled what had been a very impressive game (10 rushes for 69 yards) against a top 10 run defense with a foolish leap over the defense inside the 10 that resulted in a fumble that could have been disastrous for the team. With a 13-10 lead and nowhere close to the goal line, Mendenhall's jump was as pointless as it was risky. The team has a chance to extend its advantage. Taking a two-yard gain at the 8 is preferable to trying to stretch it to three-yards by exposing the ball to an easy strip.

Big Ben didn't have the passing stats many predicted for him in this game given Antoine Winfield's absence. Childress may not be able to figure out that running Adrian Peterson three times inside the 1 might be a good idea, but the coverage schemes were well designed in this game (though I doubt he was actually responsible for these). Excepting the end of the half drive, Ben didn't have a lot of deep pass attempts. Credit to Santonio, though, for one of his smarter games of the year, extending one reception for a 45-yard gain (which was sadly wasted by Mendenhall's fumble). It could have looked better statistically if his touchdown grab in the first quarter wasn't erased by a retarded offensive pass interference call on Heath Miller on the play.

This win changes the trajectory of the entire season. Like I said during the week, going into the bye at 5-2 enables them to make a run at a first-round bye. A win at Denver in two weeks is another huge step to that end. Patching some of the prevalent recent mistakes with running back fumbles and special teams will have them ready for the challenge.

10.23.2009

Aaron Smith or Antoine Winfield - Who Will be More Sorely Missed?

Without a doubt this is a huge signpost game on the Steelers schedule. Win, and they go to 5-2 at their bye and will be in great position to vie for one of the top seeds in the conference. A loss will likely cast them into the great swarm of teams hoping to snag a spot on Wildcard Weekend.

As is often the case in the NFL, the game will be largely determined by how well the two teams account for key absences on their roster. Without Aaron Smith, an already steep challenge in containing Adrian Peterson looks downright daunting. Missing Antoine Winfield exposes an already shaky Vikings secondary to what could be a mammoth day from the Steelers passing game.

The Steelers offensive line will probably be the fulcrum on which the entire contest swings. Without Winfield, the Vikes' pass rush absolutely has to get to Roethlisberger or the Steelers could have a Bruce Arians wet dream of 450 yards passing. Just as importantly, they need to prove they can run the ball against stout competition. The Browns did a pretty decent job of cracking down the run game last week, limiting Rashard Mendenhall to 3.6 yards per carry, the lowest of any game in which he's gotten double digit carries. If the run game in snuffed out by the Williams Wall much like it was against the Titans in Week 1, the loss of Winfield won't be as big a deal.

Excluding the runs out of the Wildcat, the defensive line rotation held their ground against Cleveland last week. But, again, it's the Browns. Contain yourself. Still, it was enough to make me think the right side of the line won't be embarrassed on a weekly basis the way it was at the end of the 2007 season. Peterson will probably break off a big gainer or two with his cutback ability, but if the Steelers can keep the remainder of his touches from giving the Vikings manageable third downs, they'll be golden. A forced fumble would also be nice. Don't discount the chances of James Harrison swiping the ball out of Purple Jesus' oft-fumbling hands.

Post Game Heroes had a great breakdown this week about Minnesota's vulnerability to passes to backs and tight ends. The demotion of FWP's stone hands plays into that being a bigger part of the Steelers offense. Mewelde Moore is already a very good receiving back, but for the defense to have to deal with the first guy on the depth chart being able to catch passes makes the Steelers much more difficult to defend. Heath Miller also could continue what has been a banner statistical year for him this week.

As for Favre, I'll give the old attention whore credit for outplaying just about anyone's expectations of him coming into the season. Luckily the Steelers defense has experience in practice dealing with a quarterback who relies on some of his same tactics. Obviously, the Steelers would prefer Favre try to beat them than have Peterson gash them all day. Minnesota got a little of both last week against Baltimore's D, with Peterson going for 148 and Favre throwing for three TDs and no picks. A lot of that was keyed off Favre exploiting a confused Ravens secondary early on. I wouldn't expect the same miscues from the Steelers.

10.21.2009

Back Seat for Willie


In addition to addressing recent off-field incidents, Mike Tomlin's press conference yesterday served to confirm what many have already known: Willie Parker has been relegated to second on the Steelers' depth chart, behind Rashard Mendenhall.

Some are already penning Willie's obituary, following the rationale that being the #2 will mean a reduction in production. And while I'm not ready to ascribe the "1a and 1b" label to the Steelers' backfield situation, situational is just what the RB is likely to be from here on out. My guess: Mendenhall will be a slightly less than every-down-back, with FWP spelling him and/or returning to service when it strikes Arians' fancy. Let's not forget that Melwelde Moore has displayed the best hands out of the backfield as well, meaning The Steelers are likely to employ the bane of Fantasy Football Fans everywhere: The Running Back by Committee approach.

I cursory glance around the AFC shows many of the top-tier teams doing the same. Consider Buckhalter/Moreno in Denver, Addai/Brown in Indy, the Jets' tandem of Washington/Jones and until recently whatever you want to call Belicheat's approach in New England. As defenses vary their coverage schemes it is in our best interest to vary our personnel to oppose them, no?

What's more, recall that Willie did some of his best work in 2005, his break-out year, sharing time with Jerome Bettis.

Listen, I'm not advocating this approach, merely denoting it and the fact that we are quite fortunate to have two and a half relatively healthy capable backs, definitely a (quick-) step up on much of the competition.

10.19.2009

Skippy Gets Pinched. Again.

Please just know your role, Jeff.

According to the Post-Gazette and numerous other outlets, everybody's favorite tantrum-throwing kicker, Jeff Reed, was cited for public intoxication last night, following the Steelers' 27-14 win over the Browns. Versions of the offending behavior are sure to vary, but it appears Mr. Reed was over-served in or around McFadden's bar back in Pittsburgh's North Shore. At which point he attempted to take on one or more of Pittsburgh's Finest.

Do you realize how much of a dick you have to be to get arrested outside a Steeler Bar/"Meat-Market" yards from the stadium...WHEN YOU'RE A FUCKING STEELER?!?!

Normally, I'd say this is a non-issue. I think I speak for the bulk of Steeler Nation when I state that Jeff has done his job at an above-average level for the past eight years. Kicking in wind-whipped Heinz Field is no easy task and he does have two Super Bowl rings. But, this is the second offense of this nature in the last year or so. Additionally, Reed's kicks have been noticeably shorter this season (most kickoffs LAND around the 15 yard line) and Reed cost us the Bears' game in the minds of some. I think it's safe to say that the Rooneys are likely to at the very least be looking at their options at jettisoning Reed.

I regularly see Reed, all fake-tanned with his NJ-Guido "blow out" hair, at Penguins home games, macking on underage chicks and just making a general ass out of himself. Having just inked a 5-year contract extension at the end of this year, I would heartily encourage Mr. Reed to fulfill the role of kicker as envisioned by every Steeler Fan everywhere if he hopes to re-sign: KNOCK IT THE FUCK OFF AND JUST KICK THE DAMN BALL.

[UPDATE: As an astute commentor pointed out, Reed's contract is up this year and he will be an Unrestricted Free Agent. CBSportsline reports that Reed's agent turned down an offer tendered by the Steelers this passed Spring. It'll be interesting to see how this affects his market value.]